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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Doubt; Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Viola Davis, Doubt; Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler.

Prediction: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Since Kate Winslet had been winning this category of late for her lead role in The Reader (Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild, etc.), her rightful placement in the Best Actress category leaves this one wide open. Cruz won the lion's share of the critics' prizes, while South Carolina native Davis' single scene in Doubt was powerful enough to earn her nominations from every major group. Henson benefits from being in the category's only Best Picture candidate, but she's a latecomer to the race, garnering little attention until now. Tomei's a past winner (My Cousin Vinny), so that decreases her chances. This is a toss-up between Cruz and Davis; since Doubt co-star Adams might usurp some of Davis' support, I'll hesitantly go with Cruz.

Preference: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Tomei and Henson are especially memorable in their compassionate turns, but between superlative work in this and Elegy, Cruz disproved all those naysayers (myself included) who once believed she could only give good performances in the Spanish language.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Josh Brolin, Milk; Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt; Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road.

Prediction: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight. There haven't been many posthumous winners in Oscar history (Network's Peter Finch being the most known), but here's betting Ledger joins their ranks. Beyond the brilliance of his performance and the sorrow over his passing, I'd like to think that Academy members are feeling stupid for ignoring The Dark Knight in every other major category and will make amends here. The only possible spoiler is Brolin, simply because he's suddenly all over the place (six movies in the past two years, including last year's Best Picture winner No Country for Old Men). But really, along with WALL-E for Best Animated Feature Film, this is the closest thing to a lock.

Preference: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight. I loved Downey's performance and was thrilled it got nominated since Oscar tends to look down on unadulterated comic turns (see the other 19 acting nominees for proof), but even he couldn't match Ledger's accomplishment. Even if he hadn't tragically died, it's hard to imagine Ledger being passed over for anyone else: His was an amazingly inventive performance, and it's clear the industry will miss his talent.

BEST ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married; Angelina Jolie, Changeling; Melissa Leo, Frozen River; Meryl Streep, Doubt; Kate Winslet, The Reader.

Prediction: Kate Winslet, The Reader. This marks Winslet's sixth nomination, and if she loses again, she'll enter into Deborah Kerr/Thelma Ritter territory (both actresses were nominated six times but always went home empty-handed). Don't count on that happening, though: Academy voters are doubtless ready to honor her for years of reliable service. Hathaway divided the critics' prizes with Happy-Go-Lucky's non-nominated Sally Hawkins, but there doesn't seem to be much love for her movie. Jolie has already won (Supporting for Girl, Interrupted), and Leo clearly falls into the "It's great to just be nominated" category. No, Winslet's only real competition comes from Streep, who earned a record-building 15th nomination. A two-time winner (Kramer vs. Kramer and Sophie's Choice), Streep's last Oscar win came 26 years ago, and it's obvious she deserves at least one more statue on her mantle. But she'll probably have to wait, as Winslet seems more likely to snag this one.

Preference: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married. I'd be much more supportive of Winslet had she been nominated for the better performance (Revolutionary Road). My pick, though, is Hathaway: Overshadowed by her co-stars in Brokeback Mountain and The Devil Wears Prada, she takes center stage in a prickly drama that allows her to shine in a raw, risky turn.

BEST ACTOR

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor; Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon; Sean Penn, Milk; Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler.

Prediction: Sean Penn, Milk. Oooh, a tough one! With an armful of critics' awards and a standing as one of the finest actors of his generation, Penn would be a lock if not for the pesky fact that he won for Mystic River a mere five years ago. That means momentum shifts to Rourke, who recently won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA (aka British Oscar). But the Oscars are a popularity contest as much as anything, and the frequently uncouth Rourke has made a lot of enemies in Hollywood; if you think that doesn't matter, just ask past frontrunners (and eventual losers) Eddie Murphy and Burt Reynolds. Pitt's only here because he got carried along in the tidal wave of support for Benjamin Button, and Jenkins ... well, see the Melissa Leo comment above. I'm tempted to do the unthinkable and predict respected veteran Langella as the benefactor of a Penn-Rourke split (much as that Jack Nicholson-Daniel Day-Lewis match paved the way for an Adrien Brody victory), but I'll reluctantly go with Penn.