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Preference: Paul Greengrass, United 93. No contest. In helming the year's best picture, Greengrass took a subject rife with pitfalls and neatly avoided all of them. The result is a film of enormous power, a galvanizing experience that never plays it safe or looks for easy emotional shortcuts.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Adriana Barraza, Babel; Cate Blanchett, Notes On a Scandal; Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine; Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls; Rinko Kikuchi, Babel.

Prediction: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls. Doesn't it just feel like nobody should win this prize? After all, Blanchett just scored in this category two years ago for The Aviator, while the other four nominees all look like one-hit wonders, with no more nods in their respective futures. Still, somebody's got to receive the most votes, and that would appear to be Hudson; as has been widely reported, her big moments in the film have been drawing claps and cheers from audiences everywhere, and her Cinderella story (from American Idol has-been to Hollywood "it girl") is irresistible. Only little Miss Breslin poses any sort of challenge, given her film's popularity.

Preference: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls. Only professional propriety kept me from joining the others in clapping and cheering.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine; Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children; Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond; Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls; Mark Wahlberg, The Departed.

Prediction: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls. It was believed in some quarters that Burt Reynolds lost the Oscar for Boogie Nights for being (as one wag put it) a "sore winner," making it clear that he felt Hollywood owed him the honor for being such a bankable star for so long. Murphy has avoided this pitfall by being largely gracious on the awards circuit, but many feel that his perceived career-long arrogance, coupled with too many bad movies, will send voters scurrying to mark the ballot for sentimental favorite Arkin. That's possible, but I'm still banking on Eddie to pull it off.

Preference: Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children. In this rather underwhelming assembly, Haley easily outpaces the competition. His performance as a former child molester is, as expected, creepy, yet the actor works hard to insure that, even if we never sympathize with his character, we at least recognize that he's capable of enormous surges of emotion.

BEST ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz, Volver; Judi Dench, Notes On a Scandal; Helen Mirren, The Queen; Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada; Kate Winslet, Little Children.

Prediction: Helen Mirren, The Queen. So far, Mirren has won 24 awards for her performance. Any questions?

Preference: Helen Mirren, The Queen. To be fair, the other nominated actresses are excellent in their respective roles -- in fact, 2006 was a strong year for leading ladies, based on the performances that didn't even make the final five. But Mirren's magisterial turn really does exist in a class by itself. She manages to make Elizabeth a figure to be alternately admired, abhorred, pitied and, ultimately, forgiven -- no small feat for any thespian to pull off.

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond; Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson; Peter O'Toole, Venus; Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness; Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland.

Prediction: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland. OK, so he's not quite Helen Mirren, but Whitaker's mesmerizing portrayal of Idi Amin has earned him 16 honors to date. He's clearly the runaway favorite in this category (even if his acceptance speeches have been wretched), but given the Academy's tendency to honor industry old-timers, I wouldn't be shocked to witness an upset by O'Toole. The Lawrence of Arabia star has previously been nominated seven times without ever winning, and members may feel that he deserves more than just the career achievement award they handed him a few years back.

Preference: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland. In terms of amount of screen time, it's hard to argue with anyone who feels that Whitaker should have been placed in the Supporting Actor category. Yet as I wrote in my original review, "The sheer force of Whitaker's performance guarantees that he remains the story's central focus even when he's not in front of the camera. Paradoxically, you can't take your eyes off him, even when he's not there."

BEST PICTURE

Babel (Paramount and Paramount Vantage; Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Jon Kilik, Steve Golin, producers); The Departed (Warner Bros.; Graham King, producer); Letters From Iwo Jima (Warner Bros.; Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg, Robert Lorenz, producers); Little Miss Sunshine (Fox Searchlight; David T. Friendly, Peter Saraf, Marc Turtletaub, producers); The Queen (Miramax, Pathe and Granada; Andy Harries, Christine Langan, Tracey Seaward, producers).

Prediction: Babel. Yes, it's true that The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine both seem to have more momentum than Babel, given their success in recent weeks with the major guilds (Departed scored with the writers' and directors' guilds, Sunshine with the producers', writers' and actors' guilds). And more often than not, the Academy likes to reward commercial success, which gives the clear edge to The Departed (the only nominee to gross over $100 million). As for award antecedents, the only honor Babel has in its corner is the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture (Drama). But among the Best Picture nominees, Babel scored the most nods, and history shows that Oscar smiles brightly on the film that leads the field. Plus, the movie is self-important in that Oscar-friendly manner, and its topical theme concerning the lack of communication in modern society (a text that also informed last year's winner, Crash) will allow voters to feel as if they're doing their part to make the world a better place.