In the technical categories, it seems likely that most of the statues will be split up between The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring and Moulin Rouge. But in most of the major contests, anything goes. Here, then, is a look at what will win -- and what should win -- in the Big 8 categories.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Beautiful Mind, Akiva Goldsman; Ghost World, Daniel Clowes, Terry Zwigoff; In the Bedroom, Rob Festinger, Todd Field; The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson; Shrek, Ted Elliott, Terry Rossio, Joe Stillman, Roger S.H. Schulman.
Prediction: A Beautiful Mind. Unless voters hold the fact that Goldsman previously foisted Batman & Robin upon an unsuspecting world, look for him to cop an Oscar in what seems to be the closest thing to a lock in these top eight categories. Although he was criticized in some circles for leaving a lot of the unsavory details of John Nash's life off the screen, he was praised in more quarters for effectively streamlining a highly, ummm, schizophrenic narrative.
Preference: Ghost World. I'm picking Ghost World by a sliver over A Beautiful Mind because, working from Clowes' comic book, Zwigoff and Clowes remarkably managed to breathe new life (and a quirky sense of humor) into the shopworn character of the alienated teen.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Amelie, Guillaume Laurant, Jean-Pierre Jeunet; Gosford Park, Julian Fellowes; Memento, Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan; Monster's Ball, Milo Addica, Will Rokos; The Royal Tenenbaums, Wes Anderson, Owen Wilson.
Prediction: Memento. Gosford Park and Memento divvied up most of the critics' prizes in this category, with Gosford Park going on to win the Writers Guild Award (for which Memento was ineligible). Gosford Park's heavyweight status (seven nominations versus Memento's two) would seem to give it the edge, but the cleverness of the twisty murder-mystery might help it inch into the winner's circle, much as The Usual Suspects did a few years back.
Preference: Memento. What other script from 2001 even compares to the refreshingly dense screenplay the Nolan brothers concocted to fuel their highly original neo-film noir outing? Last year's best picture deserves to win both its nominations, here as well as in the Best Film Editing category.
BEST DIRECTOR
Robert Altman, Gosford Park; Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind; Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring; David Lynch, Mulholland Drive; Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down.
Prediction: Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind. Not only did Howard win the Directors Guild Award, but the fact that he wasn't even Oscar-nominated for Apollo 13 should throw some extra sympathy votes his way -- enough, anyway, to beat out longtime vet Altman.
Preference: Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind. Lynch travelled places no other director could even imagine, while Jackson worked on an impressively large canvas. But with A Beautiful Mind, Howard showed some real maturation as a technically savvy filmmaker while retaining his golden touch with his actors.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind; Helen Mirren, Gosford Park; Maggie Smith, Gosford Park; Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom; Kate Winslet, Iris.
Prediction: Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind. This category is notorious for upsets in which a beautiful up-and-comer manages to vanquish the front-runner, but in this case, the beautiful up-and-comer is the front-runner. That may spell danger for Connelly, just as it did last year for Almost Famous's Kate Hudson (who unexpectedly lost to Pollock's Marcia Gay Harden). Yet while two-time Oscar winner Smith was the scene-stealer extraordinaire in Gosford Park, Connelly's real challenge seems to come from Smith's co-star: The highly respected Mirren has never won an Oscar, and her Screen Actors Guild victory a couple of weeks ago helped energize her campaign. It could go either way, but based on the popularity of her movie, I'll stick with Connelly.
Preference: Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind. More than just another pretty face, the long-obscure Connelly burst forth in 2000 with a rivetting performance in Requiem for a Dream. She's equally powerful here, transforming what could have been a standard "suffering wife" role into an embodiment of human resilience and fortitude.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jim Broadbent, Iris; Ethan Hawke, Training Day; Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast; Ian McKellen, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring; Jon Voight, Ali.
Prediction: Ian McKellen, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. You can rule out the two Yankees, and while he won a bushel of critics' awards, I don't see Kingsley winning his second Oscar for this showboat role. Broadbent has more of a chance by virtue of a Golden Globe and additional exposure in Moulin Rouge, but this looks like McKellen's award to lose. Even before his SAG victory, he seemed like the logical choice: Not only will it be retribution for losing his previous bid (Gods and Monsters) to that clown Roberto Benigni, but it will allow the Tolkien fantasy flick to save some face by winning one major award to go along with its various technical nods.
Preference: Jim Broadbent, Iris. Broadbent has delivered memorable performances before (see Topsy Turvy and this year's Moulin Rouge), and he's once again nothing short of phenomenal. As literary critic John Bayley, he whiplashes between adoration, befuddlement and frustration, as his character copes with the Alzheimer's that picks away at wife Iris Murdoch's beautiful mind.
BEST ACTRESS
Halle Berry, Monster's Ball; Judi Dench, Iris; Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge; Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom; Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones's Diary.
Prediction: Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom. Perhaps the toughest race to pick, this places front-runner (and past winner) Spacek against media darling Kidman and surprise SAG winner Berry. There are a lot of reasons to vault Kidman or Berry over Spacek, but let's face it: Oscars often go to people that other members feel they know and like personally, and Spacek has a reputation for being a genuinely sweet, down-to-earth woman. It's hard to bet against such an iconic image, though Berry's recent surge -- and the fact that Best Actress is the only acting category that's never been won by an African-American -- positions her as a potent underdog.
Preference: Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge. OK, maybe I'm cheating on this one, since I actually like the performances by Spacek, Berry, Zellweger and Dench better than Kidman's turn in Moulin Rouge. On the other hand, I think Kidman's marvelous performance in The Others is superior to the work turned in by the competition, and when coupled with her job in Moulin Rouge, it conclusively proves that she more than anyone else deserves the title Actress of the Year.
BEST ACTOR
Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind; Sean Penn, I Am Sam; Will Smith, Ali; Denzel Washington, Training Day; Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom.
Prediction: Denzel Washington, Training Day. Had Crowe not just won last year for Gladiator, he would be a mega-lock for this award. However, given his recent victory coupled with his surly off-screen behavior, are Academy voters willing to give him back-to-back Oscars, thus elevating him to the same plateau as beloved stars like Katharine Hepburn, Spencer Tracy and Tom Hanks? That opens the race up for Washington, a leading man who only has one supporting Oscar (Glory) to his credit. Working against him is the fact that the movie itself is rather slight. Working for him are the facts that 1) in this year in which three African-Americans are nominated, a victory by at least one of them would help quell bigotry charges against the Academy; 2) he would become the first African-American since Sidney Poitier to win this category, and Poitier himself will be on hand this year to collect an honorary Oscar; and 3) he's simply one of the greatest actors working in film today, and worthy of as many awards as his fireplace mantel will hold.
Preference: Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom. Crowe and Washington are both excellent, but Wilkinson's quietly powerful performance -- the true heart and soul of In the Bedroom (indeed, he has twice as much screen time as Spacek) -- moved me more than just about any other acting feat during 2001.
BEST PICTURE
A Beautiful Mind (Universal & DreamWorks; Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, producers); Gosford Park (USA Films; Robert Altman, Bob Balaban, David Levy, producers); In the Bedroom (Miramax; Graham Leader, Ross Katz, Todd Field, producers); The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (New Line; Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, Barrie M. Osborne, producers); Moulin Rouge (20th Century Fox; Martin Brown, Baz Luhrmann, Fred Baron, producers).
Prediction: A Beautiful Mind. In the Bedroom has no chance, but the ensemble piece Gosford Park might win favor with actors (the Academy's largest voting bloc) and with older members (also a sizable percentage). Moulin Rouge has that recent (and unexpected) Producers Guild Award going for it -- not to mention a healthy number of folks who are just crazy about the flick -- while The Lord of the Rings has those 13 nominations in its favor (for the past nine years, the film with the most nominations has won Best Picture). But the victor seems likely to be A Beautiful Mind, a commercial and critical hit that pleased members of most moviegoing demographics while also gaining additional exposure via extensive coverage in newspapers and magazines (many of which subsequently explored the topic of schizophrenia, John Nash's accomplishments, and the film's historical accuracy).
Preference: A Beautiful Mind. All five nominees made my Top 20, but the only ones to crack the 10 Best were Mind and Bedroom. It's a close call, but while Bedroom slightly loses its way toward the end (the climax is disappointingly conventional), Mind maintains its emotional appeal right through the fade-out. *
