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Traffic Jam From Hell

Studies show county nuclear evacuation plan is fraught with problems

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"In the Charlotte area, you would have spontaneous evacuations that would be so massive so far out from the plant that it would create bottlenecks that would trap people closer in," said Gunter.

In addition, some surveys have shown that significant numbers of parents wouldn't trust bus drivers to drive their children to safety and would try to reach them, severely complicating the evacuation. This would be further complicated by the fact that most of the evacuation centers the kids would be taken to are right outside the 10-mile zone, still well within the 25-mile danger zone. It's unknown how officers directing traffic out of the zone would respond to panicked parents attempting to drive back in, but if martial law were declared -- which Broome says would not happen -- they would have the authority to use their weapons to force parents to comply with the law.

In a survey of residents living around the Shoreham nuclear plant in New York, the sheer magnitude of the probable evacuation stampede was documented. Those living within five miles of the plant were asked what they would do if they were advised to stay indoors due to a nuclear emergency. Though the Shoreham evacuation plan estimated that only 2,700 families would flee after hearing the announcement over the radio, survey results showed that in reality, 215,000 families would attempt to evacuate by car. While no such survey has ever been conducted here, these statistics indicate that if a nuclear accident were to happen at McGuire, between 200,000 and 400,000 people would evacuate, pouring onto our already congested roads, struggling to escape, but finding themselves trapped.

"Would there be spontaneous evacuation?" said Broome. "Yes. How much? I don't know."

Two-Lane EscapePart of the problem with our county's evacuation plans is that while the designated evacuation routes haven't changed much, the number of people living and working along them has.

It's Thursday at lunchtime and the four-lane section of Highway 73 in front of the strip mall at Lake Norman and Interstate 77 is jam-packed with cars inching along. The light at the intersection changes, but nobody moves. About an eighth of a mile ahead, Highway 73 East bottlenecks into two lanes. All the while, construction equipment hums in the background, grading lots, raising rafters on homes, condos and offices along Lake Norman's main drag. But the strip of highway is more than just the gateway to and from the lake. It's also one of the main nuclear escape routes should the unthinkable happen at McGuire Nuclear Station just up the road. For the majority of its length, it's only two lanes wide. But according to the county's evacuation plan, more than 47,000 people within the 10-mile zone are supposed to use 73 West and 73 East to escape in the event of full evacuation.

This isn't as big a surprise as it may seem. The vast majority of the designated escape routes out of the 10-mile zone around McGuire are no wider than two lanes on each side.

While Broome says it's likely that both inbound and outbound lanes of I-77 will be used for escaping traffic, on internal, two-lane roads like NC 73, only one lane is likely to be used for outgoing traffic because the other will be needed for traffic moving through the evacuation zone in the opposite direction toward other escape routes. That may not cause as much congestion as it may seem, he says, because not everyone will attempt to use the designated escape routes and some people may use undesignated roads they are more familiar with.

"There will be free-flow evacuation too," said Broome. "People living in the area have a better understanding of the roads in the area than I do."

But that defeats the purpose of a controlled evacuation plan, says Gunter.

"The idea of having an evacuation route is that you can control traffic," Gunter said. "When people start taking their own routes, you are likely to have accidents and other kinds of events that could close them."

Broome says that in that situation, blocked routes could be accessed by helicopter and emergency workers brought in to help clear accidents. But will it be enough?

In 1998, Flagler County, FL, officials ordered 40,000 residents to evacuate after three raging fires threatened to converge into a massive firestorm. Once the stampede started, emergency workers were powerless to stop it. Cars lined up 20 deep at filling stations to get gas to take them to safety, accidents blocked escape routes, and panicky motorists heading north on Florida 100 turned the two-lane highway into four lanes, blocking emergency personnel trying to reach the injured from getting to them.