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Dynamic, Even Electrifying, But...

Can Edwards really make much difference?

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So was it the magnetism that did it for Edwards, or the money? Political experts are still having that debate, both here and in Washington.

Political analyst Jennifer Duffy of the non-partisan Cook Political Report, a political analysis outfit known for its accuracy at handicapping political races, still can't make up her mind.

"A mystique about Edwards, yes there is," she said. "There is no question he's gifted. I was in Iowa the weekend before the Democratic caucuses and we spent the morning with John Kerry. It's such a contrast. Kerry had this great event where it was perfect, perfect advance work. The backdrops were perfect; the room was filled just right, the music just made sense. Ted Kennedy was there to whip the crowd into a frenzy. Kerry himself was very flat. So then we drive off to Mason City for an Edwards rally and the room is too small. He is really late. It's really disorganized. This woman gets up to introduce him, does not introduce herself, and introduces him as "the next possible President of the United States.' This is a campaign advance person's nightmare. And then Edwards didn't come in the room for six minutes. But despite all of that, he just gave one of the greatest speeches. People really got into it."

Duffy has met hundreds of Senate candidates over the last 15 years. Few have stood out like Edwards. Then again, she says, there was the disastrous 2002 Meet the Press interview in which he literally fell apart on the Tim Russert chopping block, fumbling easy questions and contradicting himself.

The legendary magnetism doesn't always come across on television, Duffy said. He's not as good in one-on-one situations he can't control. And it's easy to forget that the man has been elected to something exactly once in his life, sliding past Republican incumbent Lauch Faircloth with just 51 percent of the vote in 1998 after Faircloth ran one of the lousiest campaigns in North Carolina electoral history. And while Edwards initially showed OK in the Democratic presidential primaries, he ultimately got clobbered in the primary arena when his money was no longer enough to guarantee him a win.

Then again, Edwards stands out for something else, too. Politically speaking, he's also one of the luckiest bastards Duffy's ever met.

It's easy to forget, she points out, that just over a year ago, a poll for the Raleigh News & Observer by Research 2000 showed that North Carolinians had had it with Edwards' endless campaigning for national office, first for the number two slot on the Al Gore ticket in 2000 and then for the number one slot on the 2004 presidential ticket. Just 32 percent said they'd reelect him. (For comparison, Faircloth's reelect percentage was at 45 percent when Edwards took him on in 1998.) Ambitious politicians in North Carolina smelled blood. Edwards declined to run again for the Senate. National pundits began to question whether he could win reelection in his own state. That, in turn, hurt his presidential primary campaign, particularly in the fundraising department.

For the past year, Edwards' political career has hung by a thread that threatened to snap at any time. If he didn't win the number one or number two slots on the 2004 Democratic presidential ticket, he was effectively finished in national politics. Edwards may now be billed as the saving grace that could push Kerry over the finish line, but when Kerry picked him as his running mate last week, he also saved Edwards from political obscurity.

Now, saved from the political graveyard by luck and months of hard work fundraising and campaigning for Kerry, Edwards' star is rising again.

Last month, a year after polls spelled potential disaster for Edwards in a Senate race here, another Research 2000 poll for the News & Observer shows that Edwards' standing in his home state has vastly improved. With Edwards on the ticket, Kerry could get within striking distance of Bush in North Carolina.

If North Carolina elected a president on the day the poll was conducted, President Bush would win, 47 percent to 42 percent. But with Edwards on the ticket, the divide would narrow further, to within the statistical margin of error, a far cry from the 16 percentage point margin of Bush's win over Gore in this state in 2000.

When Creative Loafing asked Stuart Rothenberg, a CNN analyst and author of the Rothenberg Political Report, a bi-weekly analysis of US Senate and House districts, to pick a winner in the presidential election if it were held this week, he picked Kerry. But, he said, that wouldn't have much to do with Edwards.